Islam Makhachev's Next Opponent: Predicting the Top Lightweight Contenders
Islam Makhachev's Next Opponent: The Lightweight Title Picture
Islam Makhachev's reign as the UFC lightweight champion has been dominant, showcasing a blend of elite grappling and improved striking. After securing the title against Charles Oliveira and defending it twice against Alexander Volkanovski (a featherweight champion), fight fans and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating who will be the next challenger. This article breaks down the top contenders, analyzes their strengths and weaknesses, and provides predictions for who might step up to face the Dagestani champion next.
The Current Lightweight Landscape
The lightweight division (155 lbs) is arguably the most stacked in the UFC, brimming with talented fighters boasting diverse skill sets. From seasoned veterans to hungry up-and-comers, the competition is fierce. Understanding the current landscape is crucial to predicting Makhachev's future opponents.
Here's a glimpse of the top contenders:
- Dustin Poirier: A former interim champion and perennial top contender known for his striking and grit.
- Justin Gaethje: Another former interim champion with devastating power and a relentless fighting style.
- Charles Oliveira: The former champion seeking to reclaim his title, possessing a dangerous submission game and improved striking.
- Arman Tsarukyan: A rising star with well-rounded skills, including strong wrestling and striking.
- Michael Chandler: An explosive fighter with knockout power and wrestling pedigree.
- Beneil Dariush: A skilled grappler and striker with a history of impressive wins.
- Mateusz Gamrot: A Polish fighter with strong wrestling and improving striking skills.
Other fighters like Jalin Turner, Dan Hooker and Rafael Fiziev are also potential contenders, but not as likely as the ones listed above at this moment.
Analyzing the Top Contenders
Let's delve into a deeper analysis of the most likely candidates to challenge Islam Makhachev, considering their recent performances, fighting styles, and potential matchups.
Dustin Poirier: The Diamond's Last Dance?
Dustin Poirier (30-8, 1 NC) is a fan-favorite fighter known for his exciting brawls and unwavering determination. He is coming off an impressive victory over Benoit Saint-Denis, showcasing his resilience and striking prowess. However, his wrestling defense has been a point of concern in the past.
Strengths:
- Exceptional striking with a high volume and diverse arsenal.
- Proven durability and ability to weather storms.
- Vast experience against top-level competition.
- Strong cardio and conditioning.
Weaknesses:
- Vulnerable to takedowns and grappling pressure.
- Can be drawn into wars of attrition, which might not be ideal against Makhachev.
Matchup Analysis: Poirier's striking would pose a threat to Makhachev, particularly if he can keep the fight standing. However, Makhachev's superior wrestling and grappling skills would likely be a significant advantage, making it a difficult matchup for Poirier.
Justin Gaethje: Violence and Power
Justin Gaethje (26-4) is another highly regarded fighter known for his explosiveness and willingness to engage in all-out wars. Gaethje is the current BMF champion and is coming off of a brutal KO win against Dustin Poirier. He has a wrestling background, but he mostly uses it to keep the fight standing. His leg kicks are some of the most damaging in the division.
Strengths:
- Devastating power in both hands.
- Unmatched aggression and relentless pressure.
- Excellent leg kicks that can cripple opponents.
- Strong wrestling base (primarily used defensively).
- Extremely durable and resilient.
Weaknesses:
- Can be overly aggressive and reckless at times.
- His striking defense can be porous.
- Wrestling defense, while good, may not be sufficient against Makhachev.
Matchup Analysis: A fight between Gaethje and Makhachev would be a clash of styles. Gaethje's power and aggression would be a threat on the feet, but Makhachev's grappling advantage would be substantial. Makhachev's ability to control Gaethje on the ground and potentially submit him makes him the favorite.
Charles Oliveira: Redemption Quest
Charles Oliveira (34-9, 1 NC) is the former lightweight champion who lost the title on the scale due to a weight miss and then was subsequently defeated by Makhachev. Oliveira possesses a diverse skill set with a dangerous submission game and improved striking. Oliveira was scheduled to fight Makhachev at UFC 294 but withdrew due to injury. After an impressive win against Beneil Dariush, he is again in the title picture.
Strengths:
- World-class submission skills with the most submission wins in UFC history.
- Improved striking with knockout power.
- Excellent cardio and ability to fight at a high pace.
- Proven ability to overcome adversity.
Weaknesses:
- Has been known to be vulnerable to early pressure.
- His wrestling defense can be exploited.
Matchup Analysis: Oliveira's submission skills would make him a dangerous opponent for Makhachev, particularly if he can secure a scramble or takedown. However, Makhachev's superior wrestling and top control would likely be a major factor in the fight, as evidenced in their first meeting.
Arman Tsarukyan: The Rising Star
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3) is a rapidly rising star in the lightweight division, known for his well-rounded skills and aggressive fighting style. He holds a win over Beneil Dariush and has only one loss in the UFC against Islam Makhachev in a very close and exciting fight. Many believe Tsarukyan has improved since then and is ready for a rematch.
Strengths:
- Strong wrestling skills with good takedown ability.
- Improving striking with knockout power.
- Excellent cardio and work ethic.
- A very good pace and pressure fighter.
Weaknesses:
- Relatively less experience compared to other top contenders.
- Has shown vulnerability in past fights.
Matchup Analysis: Tsarukyan's wrestling ability would pose a challenge to Makhachev, potentially making it a more competitive grappling match. However, Makhachev's experience and superior top control would likely give him the edge. Tsarukyan is a live underdog, but he'd need to show substantial improvements to dethrone the champion.
Beneil Dariush: The Dark Horse
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) is a well-rounded fighter with strong grappling and improved striking skills. After a dominant win streak he recently suffered a loss against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, which put him slightly out of the title picture. However, with a few more wins, he could definitely be back in the mix.
Strengths:
- Solid grappling skills with a variety of submissions.
- Improving striking with good power and accuracy.
- Durable and resilient.
Weaknesses:
- Can be inconsistent at times.
- Wrestling defense can be exploited.
Matchup Analysis: Dariush possesses the skills to make it a competitive fight, but Makhachev's wrestling and grappling would likely be a significant advantage. Dariush needs to be perfect to avoid Makhachev's takedowns and control on the ground.
Michael Chandler: The Wildcard
Michael Chandler (23-8) is known for his explosive power and wrestling pedigree. He's coming off of a loss against Dustin Poirier. Chandler is also a coach at The Ultimate Fighter season 31 against Conor McGregor. Many speculated that a win in the show would secure him a fight against the former double champion, but the fight never materialised. Chandler's future in the UFC is currently uncertain. Even though he is exciting, it is unlikely he will fight for the title any time soon.
Strengths:
- Explosive power in both hands.
- Strong wrestling base with good takedown ability.
- Aggressive and exciting fighting style.
Weaknesses:
- Can be reckless and prone to making mistakes.
- His striking defense can be exposed.
Matchup Analysis: Chandler's power and wrestling could create some challenging moments for Makhachev, but his recklessness could also lead to openings for Makhachev to exploit. Makhachev would be favored due to his superior grappling and fight IQ.
Mateusz Gamrot: The Underdog
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2, 1 NC) is a Polish fighter with strong wrestling and improving striking skills. He is coming off a win against Rafael Dos Anjos. He is known for his relentless pressure and good cardio. He is currently ranked #5 in the lightweight division.
Strengths:
- Strong wrestling skills with good takedown ability.
- Good cardio and pace.
- Improving striking.
Weaknesses:
- Relatively unknown compared to other contenders.
- Striking is not as developed as other contenders.
Matchup Analysis: Gamrot's wrestling would be a challenge for Makhachev, but Makhachev's grappling and striking are more polished. Gamrot would be a massive underdog in this matchup.
The X-Factors: Injuries, Performance, and Opportunity
While analyzing the top contenders is crucial, several X-factors can influence who ultimately gets the title shot:
- Injuries: Injuries are a constant threat in MMA, and a key contender getting injured can open the door for another fighter.
- Performance: Impressive performances in upcoming fights can significantly boost a fighter's chances of getting a title shot.
- Opportunity: Sometimes, a fighter gets a title shot due to circumstances, such as being the only available opponent or having a strong narrative.
Potential Matchups and Predictions
Based on the current landscape and the analysis above, here are some potential matchups for Islam Makhachev and predictions:
- Islam Makhachev vs. Justin Gaethje: This fight is very likely as Gaethje is the BMF champion and is coming off a KO win against Dustin Poirier. Makhachev would likely be the favorite due to his grappling advantage, but Gaethje's power and leg kicks would make it a dangerous fight.
- Islam Makhachev vs. Charles Oliveira: A rematch is always a possibility, especially if Oliveira continues to perform well. Makhachev dominated their first fight, but Oliveira is always a threat with his submission skills.
- Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan: A rematch is appealing given their close first fight. Tsarukyan has improved significantly, making this a potentially very competitive fight.
The Importance of Style Matchups
In MMA, style matchups are crucial. Makhachev's wrestling and grappling-heavy style poses significant challenges for strikers and fighters with weak takedown defense. However, fighters with strong wrestling and grappling skills, or those with exceptional striking and takedown defense, have a better chance of defeating him. Some fighters have adopted specific strategies and training camps designed to exploit perceived weaknesses in Makhachev's game, further highlighting the strategic depth of MMA.
Experience in High-Pressure Situations: In addition to skills, experience in high-pressure situations plays a vital role. Fighters who have consistently performed well in main events and championship fights are better equipped to handle the mental and physical demands of facing Makhachev.
Looking Ahead: The Future of the Lightweight Division
The lightweight division is constantly evolving, with new talent emerging and veterans constantly improving. The future of the division looks bright, with several exciting matchups on the horizon. It's going to be exciting to see who rises to the top and ultimately challenges Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title.
Conclusion: Who Will Dethrone the Champion?
Predicting Islam Makhachev's next opponent is no easy task, given the depth and talent of the lightweight division. While Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira are strong contenders, Arman Tsarukyan presents an intriguing challenge. Ultimately, the decision will depend on a combination of factors, including performance, injuries, and opportunity. One thing is certain: the lightweight division will continue to deliver exciting fights and compelling storylines in the years to come.
The journey to the lightweight title is a testament to the hard work, dedication, and strategic thinking required to succeed in MMA. As Islam Makhachev continues his reign, the world will be watching to see who emerges as the next challenger and attempts to dethrone the champion.
