Joe Mixon's Contract Crossroads: Will He Follow the Nick Chubb Blueprint?

Joe Mixon's Contract Crossroads: A Deep Dive

The NFL is a brutal business, especially for running backs. Their careers are often shorter than other positions, and their value is constantly debated. This makes contract negotiations particularly challenging. Joe Mixon, the Cincinnati Bengals' star running back, is currently navigating this complex landscape. As his current contract approaches its final stages, questions arise about his future with the team. One comparison that's frequently made is to Nick Chubb, the Cleveland Browns' stalwart running back. Chubb has consistently outperformed his contracts and is considered a cornerstone of the Browns' offense. Can Mixon achieve a similar outcome? This article will delve into Mixon's situation, examining the similarities and differences between him and Chubb, exploring the Bengals' options, and ultimately assessing the likelihood of Mixon following the 'Chubb blueprint'.

The Nick Chubb Blueprint: Loyalty, Production, and Value

Before analyzing Mixon's situation, it's crucial to understand what constitutes the 'Nick Chubb blueprint.' Chubb has earned a reputation as one of the NFL's most consistent and reliable running backs. He's known for:

• Exceptional Production: Chubb consistently ranks among the league leaders in rushing yards and yards per carry.
• Durability: While he's had his share of injuries, Chubb has generally been available and productive for the Browns.
• Team Loyalty: Chubb has expressed a strong desire to remain with the Browns and has been willing to work with the team on contract negotiations.
• Off-the-Field Conduct: Chubb is known for his professionalism and positive attitude, making him a valuable asset to the team's culture.

Chubb's contract history reflects these qualities. He signed a three-year, $36.6 million extension with the Browns in 2021. This deal was considered team-friendly, given his production and importance to the offense. Chubb essentially bet on himself, knowing that he could outperform the contract and potentially earn a larger deal later. This willingness to compromise and prioritize team success is a key element of the 'Chubb blueprint'.

The Importance of Team-Friendly Deals for Running Backs

In today's NFL, running backs are often viewed as replaceable. Teams are increasingly hesitant to invest heavily in the position, preferring to use a committee approach or draft running backs in later rounds. This trend makes it difficult for running backs to secure lucrative long-term contracts. To overcome this challenge, many running backs are willing to sign team-friendly deals. These deals provide security and stability while allowing the team to allocate resources to other positions. By accepting a lower salary, running backs can demonstrate their commitment to the team and increase their chances of remaining in a desirable situation.

Analyzing Joe Mixon's Situation

Now, let's examine Joe Mixon's situation in Cincinnati. Mixon has been the Bengals' primary running back since being drafted in 2017. He's proven to be a versatile and productive player, capable of running between the tackles, catching passes out of the backfield, and providing valuable pass protection.

Mixon's Production and Impact

Mixon's production has been somewhat inconsistent throughout his career. He's had seasons where he's rushed for over 1,000 yards and others where he's struggled with injuries and efficiency. However, when healthy and playing at his best, Mixon is a dynamic playmaker who can significantly impact the Bengals' offense. His receiving ability makes him a valuable asset in the passing game, and his willingness to block adds another dimension to his game. He provides stability in the Bengals backfield.

Mixon's Current Contract

Mixon signed a four-year, $48 million contract extension with the Bengals in 2020. This deal made him one of the highest-paid running backs in the league at the time. However, the running back market has changed significantly since then, and Mixon's contract now appears to be somewhat of an overpay. His cap hit has become a significant factor for the Bengals, especially with the need to also pay quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Similarities and Differences: Mixon vs. Chubb

While both Mixon and Chubb are talented running backs, there are key differences in their situations and skillsets:

• Production Consistency: Chubb has been consistently more productive than Mixon throughout their careers. Chubb's yards per carry average is significantly higher, and he's generally been more reliable in terms of staying healthy.
• Team Importance: Both are important to their respective teams, but Chubb has often been the focal point of the Browns' offense, while Mixon has shared the spotlight with other offensive weapons in Cincinnati. The Bengals have a high-powered passing attack that often dictates offensive strategy.
• Contract Value: Chubb's previous contract was widely considered team-friendly, while Mixon's current contract is viewed as relatively expensive, creating a difficult situation for the Bengals front office.
• Public Perception: Chubb has cultivated a strong reputation as a team-first player, while Mixon has faced some criticism for his on-field performance and off-field issues in the past. This perception impacts the overall contract negotiation dynamic.

The Bengals' Options with Joe Mixon

The Bengals have several options regarding Mixon's future with the team:

• Extend his contract: The Bengals could offer Mixon a contract extension, but it would likely need to be at a significantly lower annual value than his current deal. This would require Mixon to be willing to take a pay cut to remain in Cincinnati.
• Restructure his contract: The Bengals could restructure Mixon's current contract to create more cap space. This could involve converting some of his salary into a signing bonus, which would spread the cap hit over multiple years. However, this would also commit the Bengals to Mixon for a longer period.
• Trade him: The Bengals could trade Mixon to another team, but it might be difficult to find a trade partner willing to take on his current contract. They would likely have to eat some of his salary to facilitate a trade.
• Release him: The Bengals could release Mixon, but this would result in a dead cap hit. However, it would also free up cap space in the long run.
• Play out the contract: The Bengals could choose to let Mixon play out the final year of his contract and then let him become a free agent. This would give them one more year of Mixon's services but would also mean losing him for nothing in free agency.

Analyzing the Likelihood of Each Option

Let's delve deeper into the probability of each potential scenario, considering the Bengals' needs, Mixon's performance, and the overall NFL landscape.

Extending Mixon's Contract: A Low Probability Scenario

While not impossible, extending Mixon at a significantly reduced rate seems unlikely. Mixon, understandably, would want to be compensated fairly for his production. The Bengals, however, are facing immense pressure to allocate resources to their star quarterback and receiving corps. Unless Mixon demonstrates a willingness to accept a contract far below market value, this outcome appears improbable. A short-term, incentive-laden deal could potentially bridge the gap, but the Bengals would need to be confident in Mixon's ability to stay healthy and productive.

Restructuring Mixon's Contract: A Potentially Viable Option

Restructuring offers a compromise. It provides the Bengals with immediate cap relief while keeping Mixon in the fold. However, it commits them to Mixon for an extended period, potentially hindering their flexibility in future offseasons. This option becomes more appealing if Mixon demonstrates exceptional performance and remains a key contributor to the offense. The key is finding a restructuring agreement that benefits both parties, providing Mixon with some guaranteed money while offering the Bengals substantial cap savings. This also depends on how the Bengals view their long term strategy.

Trading Mixon: A Difficult, but Possible, Outcome

Trading Mixon presents challenges. His current contract makes him difficult to move, and the Bengals would likely need to absorb a portion of his salary to entice another team. Potential trade partners would likely be teams looking for a veteran running back with proven experience, but who are not necessarily willing to pay a premium. Teams rebuilding or looking for draft picks may not be interested. The likelihood of a trade increases if Mixon has a strong start to the season and showcases his value to potential suitors.

Releasing Mixon: A Last Resort

Releasing Mixon would be a difficult decision, as it would mean parting ways with a player who has been a key part of the Bengals' offense for several years. However, it might be necessary if the Bengals are unable to find a trade partner or reach an agreement on a contract extension or restructure. This would free up cap space and allow the Bengals to pursue other options at running back. This option also becomes more likely if the Bengals believe they can find comparable production from a cheaper player or in the draft.

Playing Out the Contract: A Likely Scenario

The most likely scenario is that Mixon plays out the final year of his contract with the Bengals. This would give the Bengals one more year of Mixon's services while allowing them to assess their options at running back. It also provides Mixon with an opportunity to prove his value and potentially earn a larger contract in free agency, either with the Bengals or another team. This approach offers the Bengals flexibility, allowing them to evaluate Mixon's performance and make a more informed decision about his future with the team.

Factors Influencing the Decision

Several factors will influence the Bengals' decision regarding Joe Mixon's future:

• Mixon's Performance: His performance in the upcoming season will be a key factor. If he performs well and stays healthy, the Bengals might be more willing to offer him a contract extension or restructure his current deal.
• The Bengals' Cap Situation: The Bengals' cap situation will also play a role. With key players like Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins due for new contracts, the Bengals might be hesitant to invest heavily in the running back position.
• The Running Back Market: The overall market for running backs will also be a factor. If other running backs sign lucrative contracts, Mixon might be more likely to seek a similar deal. Conversely, if the running back market remains depressed, Mixon might be more willing to accept a team-friendly contract.
• Draft Capital: If the Bengals believe they can draft a replacement in the upcoming NFL draft, they may be more inclined to let Mixon leave.
• Joe Burrow's Input: Joe Burrow's opinion on the matter will also be influential. As the franchise quarterback, his thoughts and opinions will be valued and taken into account.

Can Mixon Follow the Chubb Blueprint?

Ultimately, the question is whether Joe Mixon can follow the Nick Chubb blueprint. While both are talented running backs, their situations are different. To follow the Chubb blueprint, Mixon would need to:

• Improve his consistency: He needs to consistently perform at a high level and stay healthy.
• Be willing to compromise: He needs to be willing to accept a team-friendly contract that reflects his current market value.
• Demonstrate team loyalty: He needs to show a strong desire to remain in Cincinnati and be a part of the Bengals' future.

If Mixon can do these things, he might be able to secure a long-term future with the Bengals. However, it will require a willingness to compromise and a recognition of the Bengals' financial priorities. The Bengals will need to make their own assessment of Mixon's value to the team, and his willingness to work with the front office. Following Chubb's blueprint is a possible outcome, but it relies on all parties involved coming to the table willing to negotiate and compromise.

Conclusion: An Uncertain Future

Joe Mixon's contract situation is complex and uncertain. While he's a talented running back, his current contract is relatively expensive, and the Bengals have other financial priorities. Whether he can follow the Nick Chubb blueprint depends on his performance, his willingness to compromise, and the Bengals' overall strategy. The upcoming season will be crucial in determining his future with the team. The Bengals will need to carefully weigh their options and make a decision that's in the best interest of the team's long-term success. While imitating the Nick Chubb blueprint offers a potential solution, it will require Mixon and the Bengals front office to find common ground and work together. Ultimately, his future with the team remains uncertain, but his actions in the upcoming season will ultimately dictate his value.