Najee Harris: Steelers' RB1 Still Worth the Fantasy Football Investment? (2024)
Najee Harris: Examining His Value as the Steelers' RB1 in 2024
Najee Harris, the Pittsburgh Steelers' running back, has been a focal point of their offense since being drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Entering 2024, the question remains: is he still worth the investment in fantasy football and the real-world NFL context? This analysis delves into Harris's performance, the Steelers' evolving offensive scheme, and the factors that will determine his value moving forward.
Najee Harris: A Statistical Overview
Let's examine Harris's performance over his first three seasons:
- 2021: 307 carries, 1,200 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 74 receptions, 467 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns.
- 2022: 272 carries, 1,034 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 41 receptions, 229 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns.
- 2023: 255 carries, 1,035 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 29 receptions, 170 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns.
These numbers show a consistent workload in terms of carries and rushing yards. While his receiving production has declined since his rookie year, his rushing touchdown numbers remained relatively stable. It’s also important to note that he ran with a steel plate in his shoe for a portion of 2022 due to a Lisfranc injury sustained during training camp.
The Steelers' Offensive Context
The Steelers' offensive line has undergone significant changes in recent years. While it initially struggled to create consistent running lanes, improvements have been made, especially in run blocking. The 2023 season saw a noticeable improvement in the Steelers' rushing attack, which was at least partially attributable to improved line play. The addition of key players via the draft and free agency have solidified the Steelers’ offensive line.
Furthermore, the quarterback situation has also played a crucial role. In 2022, the transition from Ben Roethlisberger to Kenny Pickett created some instability. As Pickett progressed, the offense gradually improved, and now with Russell Wilson in the mix, there's a renewed sense of optimism regarding offensive production.
The arrival of Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator should have a positive impact. His track record suggests a commitment to a strong running game, which bodes well for Harris's usage. Smith's offenses in Tennessee and Atlanta have consistently featured a high volume of rushing attempts. A strong running game will allow Wilson and the Steelers to control the clock, keep their defense off the field, and ultimately score more points.
Fantasy Football Implications for Najee Harris
In fantasy football, Harris has generally been viewed as a reliable RB2 with RB1 upside. However, his receiving production has limited his ceiling in PPR (Points Per Reception) formats. Here's a breakdown of factors influencing his fantasy value:
- Workload: Harris has consistently received a high volume of carries, making him a valuable asset in standard scoring leagues.
- Touchdown Potential: His ability to find the end zone adds to his value, especially in non-PPR formats.
- Receiving Production: The decline in receiving yards and receptions is a concern, limiting his upside in PPR leagues. Arthur Smith has a proven track record of successfully utilizing running backs in the passing game. This may allow Najee to recapture some of his lost receiving value from his rookie season.
- Competition: Jaylen Warren's emergence poses a threat to Harris's workload, particularly in passing situations.
Jaylen Warren: The Competition in the Backfield
Jaylen Warren has emerged as a dynamic and explosive player, challenging Najee Harris for touches. Warren's elusiveness and ability to create big plays make him a valuable asset to the Steelers' offense. He's demonstrated a knack for making defenders miss and generating yards after contact. However, Warren's smaller size and less proven durability may limit his ability to handle a full workload.
The Steelers have indicated they view both Harris and Warren as key components of their offense, aiming to utilize their complementary skillsets. The coaching staff has expressed confidence in both players, suggesting a near 50-50 split in playing time during some games.
Najee Harris's Strengths and Weaknesses
To accurately assess Harris's value, it's essential to identify his key strengths and weaknesses:
Strengths:
- Size and Power: Harris possesses excellent size and strength, allowing him to break tackles and gain tough yards between the tackles.
- Vision: He displays good vision, enabling him to identify running lanes and make quick decisions.
- Pass Protection: Harris is a reliable pass protector, providing valuable support to the quarterback.
- Durability: He's proven to be durable, consistently handling a large workload despite facing physical defenses.
Weaknesses:
- Elusiveness: He lacks the elite elusiveness of some other top running backs.
- Explosiveness: Harris doesn't consistently generate explosive runs.
- Receiving Consistency: His receiving production has been inconsistent.
Injury History
While Najee Harris has been relatively durable throughout his NFL career, it's crucial to consider his injury history when evaluating his long-term value. In 2022, he dealt with a Lisfranc injury that visibly limited his explosiveness and agility. It is an extremely painful foot injury that has lingering effects. While he played through it, it undoubtedly impacted his performance and availability at times. Any reoccurrence of a foot injury could significantly impact his production and availability.
The Impact of Arthur Smith's Offense
Arthur Smith's arrival as offensive coordinator brings a new dimension to the Steelers' offense. Smith has a proven track record of designing and implementing effective running schemes. His offenses in Tennessee and Atlanta were known for their physicality and commitment to establishing the run.
Smith's philosophy aligns well with Harris's strengths as a power runner. Smith’s system will likely prioritize establishing the run, which could mean more carries for Harris. It is possible that Smith will design more plays that emphasize Harris's strengths. Historically, Arthur Smith has done a good job of getting his running backs involved in the passing game.
Assessing the Steelers' Draft and Free Agency Moves
The Steelers' front office has actively addressed key needs on the offensive side of the ball through the draft and free agency. The team has invested heavily in improving the offensive line, drafting players with the potential to become long-term starters. These additions should enhance the run-blocking capabilities of the line, creating more opportunities for Harris to succeed. The Steelers’ front office has also brought in Russell Wilson to improve the overall passing attack.
2024 Outlook and Projections
Considering all the factors, here's a potential outlook for Najee Harris in 2024:
- Rushing Yards: 950-1100
- Rushing Touchdowns: 6-9
- Receptions: 30-40
- Receiving Yards: 200-300
These projections suggest that Harris will continue to be a valuable contributor to the Steelers' offense, providing a solid floor in fantasy football. However, his upside may be limited by the presence of Jaylen Warren and the Steelers' overall offensive scheme. The hope is that Arthur Smith can provide more receiving oppurtunities and red zone touches for Harris to recapture his fantasy football value.
Expert Opinions and Analyst Consensus
Fantasy football analysts are divided on Harris's value heading into 2024. Some view him as a reliable RB2 with the potential for RB1 weeks, while others are more cautious due to the presence of Warren and the uncertainty surrounding the Steelers' offense. The general consensus is that Harris is a solid pick in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, but his ceiling may be lower than some other running backs in that range.
Draft Strategy and Considerations
When drafting Harris in fantasy football, consider the following factors:
- League Format: His value is higher in standard scoring leagues than in PPR leagues.
- ADP (Average Draft Position): Monitor his ADP to ensure you're not overpaying for him.
- Team Construction: Consider your overall team composition and whether you need a reliable floor or a high-upside player.
- Risk Tolerance: Assess your risk tolerance, as Harris's upside may be limited compared to other running backs in his ADP range.
Long-Term Outlook for Najee Harris
Looking beyond 2024, Harris's long-term outlook depends on several factors, including his ability to stay healthy, the Steelers' offensive line development, and the team's overall offensive philosophy. If Harris can continue to improve his elusiveness and explosiveness, he has the potential to remain a valuable asset for the Steelers for years to come. However, the emergence of Jaylen Warren could eventually lead to a more significant timeshare or even a change in the Steelers' backfield hierarchy. It's possible the Steelers might look to address the running back position in the draft to add further depth and competition to the position.
Conclusion: Is Najee Harris Still Worth the Investment?
In conclusion, Najee Harris remains a valuable asset for the Steelers and a viable option in fantasy football, but his value is nuanced. His consistent workload, size, and pass-blocking ability make him a reliable contributor to the Steelers' offense. However, his lack of elite elusiveness and explosiveness, along with the emergence of Jaylen Warren, limit his upside. Arthur Smith's arrival as offensive coordinator could unlock new levels of production for Harris, making him a worthwhile investment. The addition of Russell Wilson will keep defenses honest, and prevent them from loading the box against the run.
Ultimately, whether Harris is worth the investment depends on individual needs and risk tolerance. He provides a safe floor with RB2 potential, especially in standard scoring leagues. However, those seeking a high-upside running back may want to consider other options.
Real-World Application: Case Insights
Consider a fantasy football manager in a 12-team standard league. They need a consistent running back in the middle rounds. Najee Harris fits the bill, providing a reliable workload and touchdown potential. However, they also draft a high-upside receiver and a promising tight end, balancing risk and reward.
Building Trustworthiness Through Transparency
This analysis strives to be unbiased by presenting both the strengths and weaknesses of Najee Harris. The facts presented are based on statistical data and expert opinions, allowing the reader to form their own informed conclusion. Transparency is key to providing valuable information.
Ultimately, Harris’ fantasy football value is based on his individual skills combined with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ scheme, the team’s offensive line play, and Arthur Smith’s influence. In order to assess his value, each of these factors must be taken into consideration.
Disclaimer: Fantasy football outcomes are inherently unpredictable. This is not financial advice.
Updated June 8, 2024