Poirier vs. Holloway 3: UFC 318 - Will History Repeat Itself?

Jul 19, 2025

Poirier vs. Holloway 3: A Trilogy Years in the Making

The highly anticipated trilogy fight between Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier and Max "Blessed" Holloway is set to headline UFC 318, igniting the MMA world with excitement and speculation. This isn't just another fight; it's a culmination of years of evolution for both fighters, a story of shared history, and a clash of styles that promises fireworks. Their previous two encounters offer a complex narrative, but with both fighters now at different stages of their careers, the question looms large: Will history repeat itself, or will a new chapter be written in their rivalry?

A Look Back at Poirier vs. Holloway 1 and 2

Their first meeting occurred at UFC 143 in 2012, a time when both fighters were still relatively early in their UFC careers. Poirier secured a dominant victory by submitting Holloway in the first round. This fight showcased Poirier's grappling prowess and explosive power, while Holloway, still developing, lacked the experience to overcome Poirier's early onslaught.

Fast forward to 2019, and the landscape had drastically changed. They met again at UFC 236 for the interim lightweight title. This time, it was a five-round war. Holloway, riding a 13-fight win streak and reigning featherweight champion, stepped up to lightweight. Poirier, having evolved into a more refined and powerful striker, weathered Holloway's relentless pressure and volume, securing a unanimous decision victory in a Fight of the Year contender. This fight demonstrated Holloway's incredible durability and striking volume, but also highlighted Poirier's power, grit, and ability to absorb punishment.

UFC 143 (2012): Poirier wins by submission (D'Arce choke) in Round 1.
UFC 236 (2019): Poirier wins by unanimous decision.

The Road to UFC 318: Evolution and Transformation

Since their second fight, both Poirier and Holloway have experienced highs and lows. Poirier has faced and defeated some of the biggest names in the lightweight division, including Conor McGregor (twice), Dan Hooker, and Michael Chandler. He's consistently proven himself as one of the most dangerous and durable fighters in the sport, known for his relentless pressure, powerful striking, and underrated grappling.

Holloway, after losing to Alexander Volkanovski in their trilogy, has solidified his status as the uncrowned king of the featherweight division. He's continued to showcase his unparalleled striking volume, cardio, and durability, securing dominant victories over Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, and Arnold Allen. Holloway has become known for his incredible pace and ability to overwhelm opponents with his relentless attack.

Analyzing the Fighting Styles: A Detailed Breakdown

Understanding their individual strengths and weaknesses is crucial to predicting the outcome of Poirier vs. Holloway 3.

Dustin Poirier: The Diamond's Arsenal

Poirier is a well-rounded fighter with a dangerous striking game and a solid grappling foundation. His key strengths include:

Power Striking: Poirier possesses devastating knockout power in both hands. His left hand, in particular, is a weapon that has finished many opponents.
Relentless Pressure: He excels at pushing the pace and overwhelming opponents with his aggressive striking.
Durable: Poirier has shown incredible toughness and the ability to absorb significant punishment throughout his career.
Underrated Grappling: While primarily known for his striking, Poirier is a capable grappler with a dangerous guillotine choke and a solid top game.
Fight IQ: Poirier demonstrates excellent fight IQ, making adjustments during fights and exploiting his opponent's weaknesses.

However, Poirier also has vulnerabilities:

Can be Hit: His aggressive style sometimes leaves him open to being hit, particularly against opponents with accurate striking.
Cardio Concerns (Historically): While improved, Poirier's cardio has been questioned in some longer fights.

Max Holloway: Blessed's Volume and Pace

Holloway is renowned for his unparalleled striking volume, cardio, and durability. His key strengths include:

Striking Volume: Holloway throws an incredible number of strikes per minute, overwhelming opponents with his relentless output.
Cardio: He possesses seemingly limitless cardio, allowing him to maintain a high pace throughout five-round fights.
Durability: Holloway has absorbed a tremendous amount of punishment throughout his career and continues to move forward.
Boxing: Holloway possesses elite-level boxing skills, with a crisp jab, excellent combinations, and a knack for finding openings.
Distance Management: He's adept at controlling the distance and dictating the pace of the fight.

Holloway's weaknesses include:

Power Disadvantage: Compared to Poirier, Holloway lacks the one-punch knockout power.
Vulnerable to Leg Kicks: Opponents have had success targeting Holloway's legs with kicks, slowing him down.
Can be Outmuscled: Against stronger, more physical opponents, Holloway can sometimes be outmuscled in the clinch.

Keys to Victory for Dustin Poirier

For Poirier to emerge victorious at UFC 318, he needs to:

Utilize his Power Early: Poirier needs to establish his power early in the fight and look for opportunities to land his signature left hand.
Mix Up His Attacks: He should vary his striking attacks, targeting both the head and body, to keep Holloway guessing.
Manage Distance Effectively: Poirier needs to close the distance strategically, avoiding Holloway's jab and creating opportunities to land his power shots.
Incorporate Grappling: While not his primary weapon, incorporating takedowns and grappling exchanges can disrupt Holloway's rhythm and wear him down.
Maintain Cardio: Poirier needs to manage his energy effectively and maintain a high pace throughout the fight.

Keys to Victory for Max Holloway

For Holloway to secure the win, he needs to:

Implement his Volume Striking: Holloway must establish his striking volume early and maintain a relentless pace throughout the fight.
Target the Legs: Utilizing leg kicks can slow Poirier down and diminish his power.
Control the Distance: Holloway needs to use his jab and footwork to control the distance and dictate the pace of the fight.
Avoid Getting Drawn into a Brawl: He should avoid getting into wild exchanges with Poirier, where Poirier's power can be a deciding factor.
Utilize his clinch work: Holloway should look to implement his clinch game to wear down Poirier.

The Impact of Weight Class and Cage Size

One critical factor to consider is the weight class. This fight will take place at lightweight, where Poirier has consistently competed for the majority of his career. Holloway previously fought Poirier at lightweight in their second fight, but he has primarily competed at featherweight. Poirier is naturally the bigger and stronger fighter at 155lbs. Holloway's power may be slightly diminished at a heavier weight class, giving Poirier a significant advantage.

Cage size can also be a factor. A larger cage favors fighters with good footwork and cardio, allowing them to move and create angles. A smaller cage favors fighters who prefer to brawl and engage in close-quarters combat. The specific cage size for UFC 318 will likely influence the fighters' strategies.

Mental Warfare and the Psychological Edge

The mental aspect of fighting cannot be overlooked. Both Poirier and Holloway are experienced veterans who understand the importance of mental toughness and preparation. Leading up to the fight, expect a barrage of interviews, social media posts, and face-offs designed to gain a psychological edge.

Poirier and Holloway have both shown the mental fortitude to overcome adversity and perform under pressure. The fighter who can maintain composure, stay focused on their game plan, and handle the psychological warfare will have a significant advantage on fight night. Experience suggests that they will both act respectful, but there will be small jabs from both to throw the other off their game.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Predicting the outcome of Poirier vs. Holloway 3 is no easy task. Both fighters are highly skilled, durable, and motivated to win. The fight is likely to be a close and competitive battle that could go either way.

Many experts believe that Poirier's power and grappling advantage will be the deciding factor. They argue that Poirier will be able to land his power shots and potentially secure a finish, or at least control the fight on the ground. This is especially true if Poirier focuses on landing his signature left hand, which has proven to be a fight-ender in the past.

Other experts favor Holloway's volume striking and cardio. They believe that Holloway will be able to overwhelm Poirier with his relentless output and maintain a high pace throughout the fight, ultimately securing a decision victory. If Holloway can avoid getting drawn into a brawl and stick to his game plan of volume striking and distance management, he has a good chance of winning.

Ultimately, the outcome of the fight will depend on which fighter can execute their game plan more effectively and capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. Expect a grueling, back-and-forth battle that will test the limits of both fighters.

The Betting Odds: A Glimpse into Public Perception

The betting odds for Poirier vs. Holloway 3 often reflect public perception and expert analysis. Typically, the odds are relatively close, indicating a perceived even matchup. However, the odds can fluctuate leading up to the fight based on factors such as training camp reports, injuries, and public betting patterns.

Analyzing the betting odds can provide insights into which fighter is favored and the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. However, it's important to remember that betting odds are not always accurate predictors of the actual fight result.

The Stakes: Legacy, Rankings, and Future Opportunities

The stakes are high for both Poirier and Holloway in this trilogy fight. A victory would solidify their legacy as one of the greatest fighters of their generation. For Poirier, a win would keep him near the top of the lightweight division and position him for another title shot. For Holloway, a win at lightweight could open up new opportunities and potentially set up a future title challenge in a second weight class.

The outcome of this fight will also have a significant impact on the UFC rankings. A win for Poirier would solidify his position as a top contender at lightweight. A win for Holloway would propel him up the lightweight rankings and establish him as a legitimate threat in the division.

Potential Fight Scenarios: How the Fight Could Unfold

Several potential fight scenarios could play out at UFC 318:

Poirier Early Finish: Poirier comes out aggressively and lands a powerful punch early in the fight, securing a knockout victory.
Holloway Late Stoppage: Holloway weathers Poirier's early attacks and gradually overwhelms him with his volume striking, securing a late TKO stoppage.
Poirier Decision Victory: Poirier controls the fight with his power and grappling, securing a hard-fought decision victory.
Holloway Decision Victory: Holloway outstrikes Poirier over five rounds, securing a decision victory with his superior volume and cardio.
A Grueling War: The fight turns into a back-and-forth war of attrition, with both fighters absorbing significant punishment and pushing each other to their limits.

The Fans' Perspective: Excitement and Anticipation

The Poirier vs. Holloway 3 fight has generated immense excitement and anticipation among MMA fans worldwide. Fans are eager to see these two warriors clash again and witness the next chapter in their rivalry. Social media platforms are abuzz with predictions, analysis, and debates about the potential outcome of the fight.

The fans are drawn to the exciting styles of both fighters, the history between them, and the high stakes involved. This fight has all the ingredients of a classic MMA battle that will be remembered for years to come.

Conclusion: A Must-See Event for MMA Fans

Poirier vs. Holloway 3 is a must-see event for any serious MMA fan. This trilogy fight represents the culmination of years of evolution for both fighters, a clash of styles that promises fireworks, and a high-stakes battle that will have a significant impact on their legacies and future opportunities. Whether history repeats itself or a new chapter is written, this fight is guaranteed to be a memorable one.

Ultimately, the winner will be determined by who can best impose their game plan, manage their energy, and capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. One thing is certain: this fight will be a testament to the skill, heart, and determination of two of the greatest fighters in the world.