Zach Charbonnet: Fantasy Football Sleeper or Breakout Star? 2024 Outlook

Aug 16, 2025

Zach Charbonnet: Poised for a 2024 Fantasy Football Leap?

Zach Charbonnet entered the NFL with considerable hype, and his rookie season offered glimpses of the talent that made him a highly touted prospect. Now, heading into his second year, fantasy football managers are again asking: Is he a sleeper waiting to explode, or a player best left on the waiver wire? This comprehensive analysis delves into Charbonnet's 2023 performance, his current role on the Los Angeles Chargers, and projections for the 2024 season to help you make informed decisions during your fantasy drafts.

Understanding the 2023 Rookie Season

Charbonnet's rookie season wasn't a statistical masterpiece, but context is crucial. He played behind Austin Ekeler, a proven veteran and one of the league's most productive running backs. This inherently limited Charbonnet's opportunities, resulting in modest numbers. However, observing his performance reveals some encouraging signs.

• **Rushing Statistics:** Charbonnet recorded 4.3 yards per carry, suggesting efficiency when given the chance. This is above the league average for running backs.
• **Receiving Ability:** He showcased reliable hands and route-running skills, contributing a solid number of receptions. This dual-threat capability is highly valuable in PPR (Points Per Reception) fantasy leagues.
• **Pass Blocking:** Charbonnet demonstrated competence in pass protection, which helps keep him on the field on third downs, even when not targeted.
• **Efficiency Metrics:** While raw yardage was limited, Charbonnet's breakaway run rate and yards after contact suggest he possesses the potential for explosive plays with more volume.

The Austin Ekeler Departure: Opportunity Knocks

The departure of Austin Ekeler to the Washington Commanders opens up a significant void in the Chargers' backfield. This is the single biggest factor boosting Charbonnet's fantasy outlook. Ekeler commanded a substantial share of the carries and targets, and that workload will now be distributed among the remaining running backs. While the Chargers did sign Gus Edwards, Charbonnet is projected to have the early down role.

The Chargers also signed veteran J.K. Dobbins, but his history of serious injuries makes him a less reliable competitor for touches. Also, Elijah Dotson is in the mix. This situation creates uncertainty but also presents an opportunity for Charbonnet to establish himself as the team's primary running back.

Analyzing the Chargers' New Offensive Landscape

The Chargers have undergone significant changes to their coaching staff, most notably hiring Jim Harbaugh as their head coach and Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator. Harbaugh is known for establishing a run-heavy offense and maximizing the potential of his running backs. Roman has a similar reputation. These changes bode well for Charbonnet's potential workload.

Historically, Greg Roman's offenses have prioritized the running game. Consider his time with the San Francisco 49ers, where he orchestrated a powerful rushing attack featuring Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick. This history indicates a commitment to utilizing the running game effectively.

Jim Harbaugh's history also provides insights. Harbaugh coached the 49ers before Roman joined, where he worked to create a strong run game. His time at Michigan further solidified his commitment to a power running game. The combination of Harbaugh and Roman suggests a deliberate strategy to emphasize the run.

Charbonnet's Skill Set: A Fantasy Football Fit

Charbonnet possesses a well-rounded skill set that aligns perfectly with the demands of modern NFL offenses and the preferences of fantasy football managers:

• **Power and Size:** At 6'0" and over 220 pounds, Charbonnet has the size and strength to break tackles and gain tough yards between the tackles.
• **Agility and Speed:** Despite his size, he possesses surprising agility and burst, allowing him to make defenders miss in the open field.
• **Receiving Prowess:** Charbonnet is a capable pass-catcher, making him a valuable asset in PPR formats. He can run routes out of the backfield and line up as a receiver.
• **Pass Protection:** His willingness and ability to block effectively enhances his value on passing downs, increasing his opportunities for touches.

Fantasy Football Projections for 2024

Projecting Charbonnet's exact statistics for 2024 requires careful consideration of various factors, including the Chargers' offensive scheme, the competition for carries, and the overall health of the team. However, based on the available information, we can develop a reasonable range of projections:

Conservative Projection:

• Rushing Yards: 650-750
• Receptions: 30-40
• Total Touchdowns: 4-6
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 150-170

Realistic Projection:

• Rushing Yards: 800-950
• Receptions: 40-50
• Total Touchdowns: 6-8
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 180-210

Optimistic Projection:

• Rushing Yards: 1000+
• Receptions: 50+
• Total Touchdowns: 8-10
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 220+

These projections highlight the potential range of outcomes for Charbonnet in 2024. The conservative projection represents a floor based on limited opportunities, while the optimistic projection reflects a scenario where he emerges as the clear lead back and a focal point of the Chargers' offense.

Analyzing the Competition: Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Elijah Dotson

While Charbonnet has a clear path to increased playing time, it's crucial to evaluate the competition he faces in the Chargers' backfield.

Gus Edwards:

Edwards is a veteran running back known for his power and ability to grind out tough yards. He's a reliable player but lacks the explosiveness and receiving ability of Charbonnet. Edwards will likely handle some early-down carries and short-yardage situations, potentially capping Charbonnet's rushing upside. However, Edwards has also shown declining production in recent seasons.

J.K. Dobbins:

Dobbins possesses undeniable talent and explosiveness. However, his career has been plagued by severe injuries, including a torn ACL. His ability to stay healthy remains a significant concern. If Dobbins can return to his pre-injury form, he could compete with Charbonnet for touches. But his injury history makes him a risky investment for the Chargers and for fantasy managers.

Elijah Dotson:

Dotson is a player that showed some flashes in the preseason and late in the season. He is a bit more of a receiving threat. However, as an undrafted free agent, Dotson has an uphill climb for playing time. He is likely to be on special teams and will need to show consistency to get touches.

ADP and Draft Strategy: When to Target Charbonnet

Charbonnet's Average Draft Position (ADP) will fluctuate throughout the offseason as more information becomes available. Monitoring his ADP is crucial for determining his value and formulating your draft strategy.

As of now (early June 2024), Charbonnet's ADP places him in the mid-to-late rounds, typically as an RB3 or flex option. This represents a potential value, given his upside. The optimal time to target Charbonnet is when his ADP falls below his potential value based on your projections.

Here's a general draft strategy for targeting Charbonnet:

• **Early Rounds (1-4):** Focus on securing elite running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Do not reach for Charbonnet in these rounds.
• **Mid Rounds (5-8):** Begin considering Charbonnet as a potential RB2 or flex option, depending on your roster construction. If his ADP falls within this range, he could be a worthwhile pick.
• **Late Rounds (9+):** Charbonnet becomes a priority target in the late rounds. His potential upside makes him a valuable stash, even if he doesn't immediately contribute.

The Verdict: Sleeper or Breakout?

The question remains: Is Zach Charbonnet a fantasy football sleeper or a potential breakout star? The answer lies somewhere in between. He possesses the talent, opportunity, and coaching to significantly exceed his rookie-year production. However, competition and the inherent uncertainty of the NFL prevent him from being a guaranteed breakout player.

Here's a summary of the factors supporting a breakout:

• Austin Ekeler's departure creates a significant void in the backfield.
• The Chargers' new coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, is committed to running the ball.
• Charbonnet possesses a well-rounded skill set, including power, agility, receiving ability, and pass protection.

However, the following factors could limit his upside:

• Gus Edwards could steal some early-down carries and short-yardage opportunities.
• J.K. Dobbins' health and performance remain uncertain but could impact Charbonnet's workload.
• The Chargers' overall offensive efficiency will influence the number of scoring opportunities for the running backs.

Ultimately, Zach Charbonnet represents a high-upside risk in fantasy football. His potential for a significant role in a run-heavy offense makes him an intriguing target in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft. However, managing expectations and understanding the potential limitations will be crucial for maximizing his value on your fantasy roster.

Scenario Planning: Preparing for Different Outcomes

Successful fantasy football managers are proactive and prepared for various scenarios. Here's how to approach Charbonnet's situation with different outcomes in mind:

Scenario 1: Charbonnet Ascends to Lead Back Status

In this scenario, Charbonnet dominates the Chargers' backfield, commanding the majority of carries and targets. He becomes a reliable RB2 with the potential for RB1 upside. If this occurs, hold onto Charbonnet and enjoy the production. He becomes a valuable asset in your lineup. Be willing to trade him if you receive a significant offer, but only if you have adequate depth at the running back position.

Scenario 2: Charbonnet Forms a Committee with Gus Edwards

This is the most likely scenario. Charbonnet and Edwards share the workload, with Charbonnet handling a slightly larger share. He becomes a flex option with inconsistent production. In this scenario, Charbonnet's value diminishes. He becomes a matchup-dependent flex play. Consider trading him to a running back-needy team if you can get decent value in return.

Scenario 3: J.K. Dobbins Emerges as the Lead Back

In this less-likely scenario, Dobbins defies his injury history and reclaims his status as a lead back. Charbonnet's role diminishes, and he becomes a bench stash with limited value. If this occurs, Charbonnet becomes droppable in most leagues. He's no longer worth a roster spot unless you have a deep bench and believe in his long-term potential.

Scenario 4: Injury Strikes the Chargers' Backfield

Injuries are an inevitable part of the NFL. If either Charbonnet, Edwards, or Dobbins gets injured, the remaining healthy backs see a significant increase in value. If Charbonnet is the beneficiary of such an injury, his value skyrockets. If he's already on your roster, hold him tight and enjoy the windfall. If he's on the waiver wire, pounce immediately.

Beyond the Stats: Intangibles and the Eye Test

While statistics and projections are valuable tools, they don't tell the whole story. The "eye test" and intangible qualities can provide additional insights into a player's potential.

• **Work Ethic:** Reports suggest that Charbonnet is a dedicated and hardworking player. This is a positive sign for his development and his ability to earn the trust of his coaches.
• **Leadership:** While still early in his career, Charbonnet has displayed leadership qualities, both on and off the field. These qualities can contribute to his overall value and impact on the team.
• **Coaching Feedback:** Monitor the coaching staff's comments and observations about Charbonnet throughout training camp and the preseason. Positive feedback can be a strong indicator of his potential role and performance.
• **Preseason Performance:** Pay close attention to Charbonnet's performance in preseason games. This provides an opportunity to see him in live game action and assess his skills and abilities.

The Final Recommendation: Draft with Confidence, But Temper Expectations

Zach Charbonnet possesses the potential to be a valuable asset in fantasy football leagues, but his value hinges on the opportunity he receives and his performance on the field. Draft him with confidence in the mid-to-late rounds, but temper your expectations and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on how the season unfolds.

By understanding his strengths, weaknesses, and the surrounding circumstances, you can make an informed decision and potentially capitalize on his upside. Monitor his ADP, analyze the competition, and be prepared to adapt your strategy as the season progresses. With careful planning and a little bit of luck, Zach Charbonnet could be a key piece in your championship-winning fantasy team.

Ultimately, whether Zach Charbonnet becomes a fantasy football sleeper or a breakout star depends on a confluence of factors. But with his talent, opportunity, and the potential for a significant role in a run-heavy offense, he's a player worth monitoring and potentially drafting in your fantasy leagues.